Notts County 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Bradford at Meadow Lane in League One, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County at Meadow Lane this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Bradford have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Bradford have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 1.80 PPG versus Bradford's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Notts County: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Bradford, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Notts County and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Notts County in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 57% versus Bradford 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 55% | Bradford 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.22 xG and Bradford 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.927 / defence 1.078 | Bradford attack 0.785 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.398. Data: 5 Notts County games / 51 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Notts County 1.22 / Bradford 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.927 / def 1.078 | Bradford attack 0.785 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Notts County (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bradford xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Bradford kick off?
Notts County vs Bradford kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Bradford?
Notts County 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Notts County vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Bradford part of?
Notts County vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 35% chance of winning, Bradford a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Notts County and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bradford?
Record (4 meetings): Notts County 3W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Notts County and Bradford in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Bradford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Notts County's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.19
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.40
1.18
Bradford xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Notts County and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Notts County and 1.18 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County's recent record stands at 27W 12D 14L from 53 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 17L across 53 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.75 PPG, Bradford on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 15W 6D 5L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.19 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Bradford in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Bradford away?
Notts County's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.96 PPG; Bradford away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Notts County or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bradford in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2024, when Notts County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Notts County's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bradford?
From 5 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Bradford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Notts County 0-1 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Bradford?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 58%, Bradford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Notts County) and 58% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bradford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Notts County's games and 58% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Notts County's matches and 58% of Bradford's.
Do Notts County and Bradford tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bradford in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Notts County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Notts County 0-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.22 xG and Bradford 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Notts County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Bradford attack 0.79 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 55%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.75 PPG, Bradford 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.