Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 18 as Notts County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 1.20 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
AFC Wimbledon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Notts County's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 0–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
It is worth noting that AFC Wimbledon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus AFC Wimbledon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 49% | AFC Wimbledon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.73 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.889 / defence 0.987 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.784 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Notts County games / 59 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 20%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 5.00. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Notts County 1.73 / AFC Wimbledon 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.889 / def 0.987 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.784 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Notts County (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.98
AFC Wimbledon xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 December 2026 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 53% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Notts County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (6 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 5W.
What form are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 0.89x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.71
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.70
0.98
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
28.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Notts County and 0.98 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County come into this having played 59 games, going 29W 13D 17L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (18W 12D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Notts County's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (8W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.02 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 29W 13D 17L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 12D 29L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Notts County's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.83 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Notts County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AFC Wimbledon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Notts County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
0
Draws
5
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 57%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Notts County) and 60% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Notts County's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Notts County's matches and 60% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Notts County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.