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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Northampton and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.79 xG and Wigan 0.97 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Wigan attack 0.74 / defence 0.71, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 28% | Draw 34% | Wigan 38%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 50%, Wigan 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.21 PPG, Wigan 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights