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Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton and Stockport County finished level at 0-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.24 xG and Stockport County 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stockport County landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 34% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Stockport County 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights