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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.96 xG and Stockport County 1.35 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Stockport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 26% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 45%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 50%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights