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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Northampton 1-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.18 xG and Doncaster 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Doncaster outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Doncaster attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Doncaster 32%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Doncaster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 47%, Doncaster 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights