Northampton 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Cambridge United travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambridge United stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Northampton, 0 for Cambridge United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 55% versus Cambridge United 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 52% | Cambridge United 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.982 / defence 1.049 | Cambridge United attack 0.844 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.120. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Northampton games / 60 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 56% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Cambridge United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 40% | Cambridge United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 56% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Northampton 1.79 / Cambridge United 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.982 / def 1.049 | Cambridge United attack 0.844 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Northampton (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cambridge United xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Northampton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Northampton 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Northampton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Cambridge United part of?
Northampton vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 56% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Northampton and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Northampton and Cambridge United in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Northampton's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.16
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.78
0.99
Cambridge United xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
29.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Northampton and 0.99 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 14D 25L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 15W 14D 31L from 60 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.28 PPG, Cambridge United on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 4W 5D 20L from 29 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.87 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 15W 14D 31L in their last 60 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Cambridge United away?
Northampton's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.66 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Northampton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cambridge United 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Cambridge United?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 48%, Cambridge United 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Northampton) and 48% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cambridge United in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Northampton's recent matches and 34% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Northampton's recent games and 48% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Cambridge United finished level at 0-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 56% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 20%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 52%, Cambridge United 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.28 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.