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Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton and Bradford finished level at 0-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.45 xG and Bradford 1.00 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Bradford attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 47% | Draw 27% | Bradford 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 49%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bradford's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights