Northampton 1-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 32 as Northampton welcome Bolton to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Bolton have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Northampton) versus 1.90 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Northampton, 1 for Bolton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Bolton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Bolton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.91 xG and Bolton 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.925 / defence 1.085 | Bolton attack 1.132 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.169. Bolton's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Northampton games / 74 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.04. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 50% | Bolton 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Northampton 0.91 / Bolton 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.925 / def 1.085 | Bolton attack 1.132 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bolton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bolton xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Bolton kick off?
Northampton vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Northampton 1 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Northampton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Bolton part of?
Northampton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 24% chance of winning, Bolton a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Northampton and Bolton in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Bolton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.35
1.44
Bolton xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Northampton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Northampton and 1.44 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 75 games, going 35W 18D 22L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.85 PPG from 75 outings (41W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.64 PPG, Bolton on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 17W 9D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.64 points per game from 36 outings (17W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.51 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 18D 22L in their last 75 games (1.64 PPG), while Bolton have gone 41W 16D 18L in their last 75 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Bolton away?
Northampton's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.67 PPG; Bolton away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Northampton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bolton in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Northampton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Northampton
2
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Bolton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Bolton 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Bolton 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Northampton) and 36% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bolton in 42%; Bolton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 39% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Northampton's recent games and 36% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Bolton tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bolton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Bolton finished level at 1-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.91 xG and Bolton 1.44 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Bolton attack 1.13 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Bolton 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.64 PPG, Bolton 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.