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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Mansfield Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 0.74 xG and Wrexham 1.28 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.64 / defence 1.20 against Wrexham attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 22% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 49%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 56%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.61 PPG, Wrexham 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights