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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mansfield Town and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Mansfield Town and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.81 xG and Wigan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mansfield Town fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Wigan attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 23% | Wigan 23%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 60%, Wigan 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.24 PPG, Wigan 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights