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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Mansfield Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.24 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 42%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 58%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights