Mansfield Town vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mansfield Town (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mansfield Town face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stevenage meet at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Mansfield Town's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Mansfield Town 3W, Stevenage 1W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 56% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.67 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.355 / defence 1.017 | Stevenage attack 0.780 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Mansfield Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Mansfield Town games / 50 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 51% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 22%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 4.55. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 70% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 51% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Mansfield Town 1.67 / Stevenage 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.355 / def 1.017 | Stevenage attack 0.780 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stevenage xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 51% chance of winning, Stevenage a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Record (8 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 4 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.78x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.71
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.67
1.01
Stevenage xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.01 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 18W 17D 15L from 50 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 16L across 50 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.44 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 11W 8D 6L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Stevenage away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.64 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 60%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Mansfield Town) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stevenage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.