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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mansfield Town and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Mansfield Town and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.57 xG and Stevenage 1.19 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 29%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 62%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.17 PPG, Stevenage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights