Mansfield Town 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mansfield Town (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mansfield Town face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stevenage meet at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Mansfield Town's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Mansfield Town are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Mansfield Town winning.
The historical record gives Mansfield Town a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 66% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 54% | Stevenage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.42 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.092 / defence 1.033 | Stevenage attack 0.695 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.252. Data: 9 Mansfield Town games / 56 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 4.17. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 80% | Stevenage 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Mansfield Town 1.42 / Stevenage 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.092 / def 1.033 | Stevenage attack 0.695 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stevenage xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Mansfield Town 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 49% chance of winning, Stevenage a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.69x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 9/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.71
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.32
0.90
Stevenage xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.90 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 30W 16D 9L from 55 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 17L across 55 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 15W 9D 3L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.16 scored and 0.96 conceded. Mansfield Town's scoring rate against Stevenage's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 30W 16D 9L in their last 55 games (1.93 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Stevenage away?
Mansfield Town's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stevenage in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 63%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mansfield Town) and 56% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage in 33%; Stevenage in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mansfield Town's games and 48% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 56% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.42 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Stevenage attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 54%, Stevenage 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.