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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mansfield Town beat Peterborough 4-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.23 xG and Peterborough 1.74 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.46 against Peterborough attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 27% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 49%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 58%, Peterborough 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.49 PPG, Peterborough 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights