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Shock result as Doncaster defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.59 xG and Doncaster 1.13 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Doncaster attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 48% | Draw 25% | Doncaster 27%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Doncaster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 64%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights