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Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.78 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Crawley Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.56, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights