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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Mansfield Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 30% | Charlton 45%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.58 PPG, Charlton 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights