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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Cardiff 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mansfield Town beat Cardiff 5-4 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.22 xG and Cardiff 1.51 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Cardiff attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 31% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 44%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 54%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.27 PPG, Cardiff 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights