Mansfield Town vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mansfield Town host Bradford at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Mansfield Town haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 5D 2L at One Call Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at One Call Stadium this season.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bradford's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mansfield Town have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mansfield Town register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bradford in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mansfield Town trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 54% versus Bradford 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 46% | Bradford 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.65 xG and Bradford 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.091 / defence 1.037 | Bradford attack 0.994 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Mansfield Town games / 46 Bradford games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 24% | Bradford 30%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Bradford 3.33. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 60% | Bradford 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 24% | Bradford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Mansfield Town 1.65 / Bradford 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.091 / def 1.037 | Bradford attack 0.994 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bradford xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Bradford kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Bradford part of?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 46% chance of winning, Bradford a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mansfield Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Record (8 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 3 | Bradford 2W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.13
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.92
1.28
Bradford xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
17.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.28 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 17D 13L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. Mansfield Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.59 PPG from 46 outings (21W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. Bradford haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.41 PPG, Bradford on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mansfield Town's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.22 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Pre-Season
Bradford
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 16W 17D 13L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Bradford have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Bradford away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.52 PPG; Bradford away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bradford in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Bradford runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 56%, Bradford 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Mansfield Town and 65% for Bradford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bradford in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mansfield Town's games and 65% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mansfield Town's matches and 65% of Bradford's.
Do Mansfield Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bradford in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.