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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.56 xG and Bolton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Bolton attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 25% | Bolton 25%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Bolton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 60%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Bolton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.21 PPG, Bolton 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights