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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Bolton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mansfield Town beat Bolton 2-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.15 xG and Bolton 1.31 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 32% | Draw 28% | Bolton 40%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 52%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.75 PPG, Bolton 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights