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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Port Vale in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port Vale's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lincoln, 1.20 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lincoln lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 48% versus Port Vale 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 44% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.55 xG and Port Vale 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.109 / defence 0.991 | Port Vale attack 0.780 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.070. Data: 63 Lincoln games / 17 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 54% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 20%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Port Vale 5.00. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 60% | Port Vale 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: LNER stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Lincoln 2W | Draws 1 | Port Vale 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Lincoln 6 – 4 Port Vale • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Lincoln 50% / Draw 25% / Port Vale 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.38 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 44% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Lincoln (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L • Lincoln home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Port Vale away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Lincoln 1.60 PPG vs Port Vale 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Lincoln): Poisson xG of 1.55 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Port Vale): Poisson xG of 0.83 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.38 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 54% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Lincoln 1.55 / Port Vale 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.109 / def 0.991 | Port Vale attack 0.780 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Port Vale xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Port Vale kick off?
Lincoln vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at LNER stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Lincoln 1 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Lincoln vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at LNER stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Port Vale part of?
Lincoln vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 54% chance of winning, Port Vale a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lincoln and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Port Vale?
• Record (4 meetings): Lincoln 2W | Draws 1 | Port Vale 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Lincoln 6 – 4 Port Vale • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Lincoln 50% / Draw 25% / Port Vale 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.38 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 44% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Lincoln and Port Vale in?
• Lincoln (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L • Lincoln home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Port Vale away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Lincoln 1.60 PPG vs Port Vale 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Lincoln): Poisson xG of 1.55 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Port Vale): Poisson xG of 0.83 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.38 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Lincoln vs Port Vale?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture