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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Peterborough 5-2 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.39 xG and Peterborough 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Peterborough attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 46% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 45%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Peterborough's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.49 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights