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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Peterborough 5-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.58 xG and Peterborough 1.03 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Peterborough attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 50% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 24%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (72 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.51 PPG, Peterborough 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights