Lincoln 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lincoln at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Mansfield Town travel to LNER stadium to take on Lincoln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lincoln's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at LNER stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.70 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lincoln, 0 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 49% versus Mansfield Town 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 43% | Mansfield Town 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.75 xG and Mansfield Town 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.173 / defence 1.028 | Mansfield Town attack 1.125 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.023. Data: 51 Lincoln games / 51 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 51% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Mansfield Town 3.85. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 40% | Mansfield Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: LNER stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 51% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Lincoln 1.75 / Mansfield Town 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.173 / def 1.028 | Mansfield Town attack 1.125 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mansfield Town xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Lincoln vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at LNER stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Mansfield Town?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Lincoln vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at LNER stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Mansfield Town part of?
Lincoln vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 51% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lincoln and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 2W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Mansfield Town in?
Lincoln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lincoln's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.24
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.93
1.18
Mansfield Town xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
5%
22.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.18 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln's recent record stands at 19W 14D 18L from 51 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 24L across 51 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.39 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.37 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 63%.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 18W 9D 24L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Mansfield Town away?
Lincoln's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.68 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2024, when Lincoln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lincoln
1
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Mansfield Town?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 52%, Mansfield Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lincoln) and 68% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lincoln's games and 64% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lincoln's matches and 68% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Lincoln and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Mansfield Town finished level at 1-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.75 xG and Mansfield Town 1.18 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Mansfield Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 51% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 26%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 43%, Mansfield Town 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.39 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.