Lincoln vs Charlton – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln and Charlton finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 43%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights