Lincoln 3-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Charlton meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lincoln have posted 6W 2D 2L at LNER Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lincoln are significantly better at LNER Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Lincoln, 1.50 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lincoln 2W, Charlton 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 41% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 31% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.27 xG and Charlton 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.067 / defence 0.788 | Charlton attack 0.856 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.089. Lincoln's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Lincoln games / 58 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 49% | Draw 29% | Charlton 22%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 4.55. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 20% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 49% | Draw 29% | Charlton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Lincoln 1.27 / Charlton 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.067 / def 0.788 | Charlton attack 0.856 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Charlton xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Charlton kick off?
Lincoln vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Lincoln 3 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Lincoln vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Charlton part of?
Lincoln vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 49% chance of winning, Charlton a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lincoln and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Lincoln 2W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.07x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.86x) against Lincoln's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.41
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Charlton xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
16.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.73 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln's recent record stands at 19W 23D 16L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 20L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Lincoln against 1.38 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 10W 14D 3L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.57 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 19W 23D 16L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Charlton have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Charlton away?
Lincoln's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.63 PPG; Charlton away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Charlton in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
4
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Charlton?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 41%, Charlton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Lincoln and 44% for Charlton.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 30% of games; Charlton in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lincoln's recent matches and 52% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Lincoln's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Charlton tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Charlton 3-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.27 xG and Charlton 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.07 / defence 0.79 against Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 49% | Draw 29% | Charlton 22%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.38 PPG, Charlton 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.