Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lincoln are significantly better at LNER Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.50 PPG, Burton Albion 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lincoln's 20% rate and Burton Albion's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lincoln, 3 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Burton Albion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 43% versus Burton Albion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 32% | Burton Albion 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.57 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.190 / defence 0.741 | Burton Albion attack 0.839 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.126. Lincoln's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Lincoln games / 58 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 17%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Burton Albion 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 20% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Lincoln 1.57 / Burton Albion 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.190 / def 0.741 | Burton Albion attack 0.839 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Burton Albion xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 October 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 58% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Record (4 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 3W.
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.19x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.96
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.27
0.70
Burton Albion xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
3%
28.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.70 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 18W 23D 15L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 23L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 10W 15D 2L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.20 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 18W 23D 15L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.67 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Burton Albion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2026, when Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 44%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Lincoln) and 52% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lincoln's recent matches and 52% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Lincoln's recent games and 52% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.57 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.19 / defence 0.74 against Burton Albion attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 17%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 32%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.