Lincoln 0-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to LNER Stadium to face Lincoln in League One, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lincoln have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, AFC Wimbledon in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lincoln 67% and AFC Wimbledon 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 50% | AFC Wimbledon 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.51 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.918 / defence 1.053 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.928 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.292. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Lincoln games / 12 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 32%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Wimbledon 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 67% | AFC Wimbledon 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lincoln 1.51 / AFC Wimbledon 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.918 / def 1.053 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.928 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AFC Wimbledon xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon?
Lincoln 0 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 43% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lincoln's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.93x) against Lincoln's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.97
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.77
1.26
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.26 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Lincoln against 1.17 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.58 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; AFC Wimbledon in 75%.
Last 12 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Lincoln's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.33 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lincoln
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Lincoln 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lincoln, 67% for AFC Wimbledon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lincoln and 83% for AFC Wimbledon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lincoln's games and 67% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lincoln's matches and 83% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Lincoln and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.51 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 / defence 1.39, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 32%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 50%, AFC Wimbledon 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.25 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.