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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leyton Orient and Stockport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 3, as Leyton Orient and Stockport County drew 2-2 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.32 xG and Stockport County 1.04 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Stockport County attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 43% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 29%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 54%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.66 PPG, Stockport County 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights