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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leyton Orient and Stockport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brisbane Road, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Leyton Orient and Stockport County drew 2-2 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.18 xG and Stockport County 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leyton Orient beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Stockport County attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 92/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 39% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 30%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 51%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.55 PPG, Stockport County 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights