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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Leyton Orient 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Leyton Orient 2-3 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.18 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Leyton Orient beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Stevenage attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 54%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Stevenage's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.69 PPG, Stevenage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights