Leyton Orient vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Leyton Orient at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leyton Orient vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 18 as Leyton Orient welcome Peterborough to Brisbane Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Leyton Orient have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leyton Orient's home record at Brisbane Road: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Leyton Orient have won 1, Peterborough 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Leyton Orient winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leyton Orient in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 54% versus Peterborough 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 58% | Peterborough 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.68 xG and Peterborough 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.991 / defence 1.012 | Peterborough attack 0.802 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Leyton Orient's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Leyton Orient games / 59 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 51% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 22%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Peterborough 4.55. Leyton Orient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leyton Orient at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 40% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Brisbane Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 51% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Leyton Orient 1.68 / Peterborough 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.991 / def 1.012 | Peterborough attack 0.802 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Peterborough xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Peterborough kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 December 2026 at Brisbane Road.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Brisbane Road.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough part of?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 51% chance of winning, Peterborough a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Leyton Orient and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Record (6 meetings): Leyton Orient 1W | Draws 3 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Peterborough in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (0.99) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.64
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.70
1.02
Peterborough xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.02 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 19W 12D 28L from 59 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 30L across 59 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leyton Orient on 1.17 PPG, Peterborough on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 11W 7D 12L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 8W 4D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.27 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 games (1.17 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 17W 12D 30L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Peterborough away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.33 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leyton Orient and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 1, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Leyton Orient 2-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 60%, Peterborough 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Leyton Orient) and 53% (Peterborough).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Leyton Orient's games and 60% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 53% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Peterborough tend to score early?
Leyton Orient have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.