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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leyton Orient beat Peterborough 2-1 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.30 xG and Peterborough 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Peterborough attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Leyton Orient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 59%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.47 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights