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Dominant Leyton Orient run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leyton Orient beat Crawley Town 3-0 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.50 xG and Crawley Town 0.79 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Leyton Orient beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Crawley Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 54% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 20%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 47%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crawley Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.36 PPG, Crawley Town 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights