Leyton Orient 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leyton Orient vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Gaughan Group Stadium to face Leyton Orient in League One, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leyton Orient have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaughan Group Stadium, Leyton Orient have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Charlton (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charlton have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Charlton are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Leyton Orient 0W, Charlton 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Leyton Orient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 40% versus Charlton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 34% | Charlton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.01 xG and Charlton 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.711 / defence 1.326 | Charlton attack 1.043 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.150. Leyton Orient's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Leyton Orient games / 67 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 23% | Draw 28% | Charlton 49%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 2.04. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 40% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 23% | Draw 28% | Charlton 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Leyton Orient 1.01 / Charlton 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.711 / def 1.326 | Charlton attack 1.043 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Charlton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Charlton kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Charlton kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Leyton Orient 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Charlton part of?
Leyton Orient vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 23% chance of winning, Charlton a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Leyton Orient and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Leyton Orient 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Charlton in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (0.71) and Charlton's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.04x) against Leyton Orient's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 22/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
23%
4.37
28%
3.61
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.60
1.59
Charlton xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
21.45
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.59 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 31W 20D 16L from 67 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 22L across 67 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Leyton Orient against 1.36 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 17W 8D 7L from 32 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 8W 12D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.55 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 66%.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Charlton in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 31W 20D 16L in their last 67 games (1.69 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Charlton away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.84 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Charlton in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leyton Orient have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
0
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Charlton?
From 5 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 1, Charlton have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 31%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Leyton Orient) and 47% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Charlton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 59% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 47% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Charlton tend to score early?
Leyton Orient have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Charlton 1-0 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.01 xG and Charlton 1.59 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.71 / defence 1.33 against Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 23% | Draw 28% | Charlton 49%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Leyton Orient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 34%, Charlton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.69 PPG, Charlton 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.