🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Leyton Orient and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 46, as Leyton Orient and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.08 xG and Burton Albion 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leyton Orient beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Burton Albion attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 57%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.44 PPG, Burton Albion 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights