Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leyton Orient's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.20
0.88
Burton Albion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.88 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.