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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leyton Orient.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Leyton Orient 1-3 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 2.16 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.06 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leyton Orient fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.98 / defence 1.42, drawn from 69/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 62% | Draw 20% | AFC Wimbledon 18%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 56%, AFC Wimbledon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.52 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights