Ipswich 2-2 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 40%, yet in-form Sheffield Wednesday provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Sheffield Wednesday travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 6W 3D 1L at Portman Road — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sheffield Wednesday's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sheffield Wednesday — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Sheffield Wednesday and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ipswich in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 52% versus Sheffield Wednesday 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 48% | Sheffield Wednesday 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.14 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.285 / defence 0.785 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.014 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.145. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sheffield Wednesday's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Ipswich games / 74 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 40% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 28%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Sheffield Wednesday 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sheffield Wednesday (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Sheffield Wednesday 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 40% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Ipswich 1.14 / Sheffield Wednesday 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.285 / def 0.785 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.014 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sheffield Wednesday xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Ipswich 2 - 2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 40% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 2 | Sheffield Wednesday 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.28x the league average against Sheffield Wednesday's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.18
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.05
0.91
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.91 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 33W 26D 16L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 42W 20D 13L from 75 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.67 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.94 PPG from 36 outings (19W 13D 4L).
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 10D 10L from 36 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.69 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Sheffield Wednesday in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 33W 26D 16L in their last 75 games (1.67 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 42W 20D 13L in their last 75 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Ipswich's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.94 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Ipswich won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Sheffield Wednesday specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ipswich
3
Draws
1
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 8 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 4, Sheffield Wednesday have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 47%, Sheffield Wednesday 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ipswich) and 39% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 36%; Sheffield Wednesday in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ipswich's recent matches and 44% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ipswich's recent games and 39% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday finished level at 2-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.14 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.91 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.28 / defence 0.79 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.01 / defence 0.69, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 40% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 28%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 48%, Sheffield Wednesday 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.67 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.