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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Huddersfield 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Huddersfield 1-2 at John Smit, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huddersfield 1.46 xG and Stockport County 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huddersfield attack 1.04 / defence 0.81 against Stockport County attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huddersfield 47% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 27%, with Huddersfield to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huddersfield 52%, Stockport County 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huddersfield's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huddersfield 1.48 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Huddersfield (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights