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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Huddersfield run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huddersfield beat Crawley Town 5-1 at John Smith's Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huddersfield 1.32 xG and Crawley Town 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Huddersfield beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huddersfield attack 0.63 / defence 0.91 against Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.69, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huddersfield 45% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 26%, with Huddersfield to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huddersfield 45%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huddersfield's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huddersfield 1.26 PPG, Crawley Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huddersfield win broke the near-deadlock. Huddersfield (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights