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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Huddersfield and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at John Smit, Regular Season - 40, as Huddersfield and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huddersfield 1.52 xG and Cardiff 1.62 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huddersfield attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Cardiff attack 1.33 / defence 0.93, drawn from 88/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huddersfield 36% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 40%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huddersfield 55%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huddersfield's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huddersfield 1.41 PPG, Cardiff 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights