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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Huddersfield and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at John Smith's Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Huddersfield and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huddersfield 1.36 xG and Burton Albion 0.78 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huddersfield attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Burton Albion attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 21/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huddersfield 51% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 21%, with Huddersfield to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huddersfield 48%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huddersfield's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Huddersfield arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights