Gillingham 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 32 as Gillingham welcome Cambridge United to Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gillingham's home record at Priestfield Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambridge United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Cambridge United's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gillingham, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Gillingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 52% versus Cambridge United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 38% | Cambridge United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.90 xG and Cambridge United 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.639 / defence 1.727 | Cambridge United attack 0.849 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.271. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Gillingham games / 29 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 17% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 60%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Cambridge United 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Cambridge United (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gillingham 30% | Cambridge United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 17% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Gillingham 0.90 / Cambridge United 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.639 / def 1.727 | Cambridge United attack 0.849 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Cambridge United xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Cambridge United kick off?
Gillingham vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Cambridge United?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Gillingham vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Cambridge United part of?
Gillingham vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 17% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gillingham and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Cambridge United in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.64x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
17%
5.73
23%
4.43
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.76
1.86
Cambridge United xG
5.73
17%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
3%
36.90
25%
4.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.86 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham's recent record stands at 4W 9D 16L from 29 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 10L across 29 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambridge United by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 29 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 4W 9D 16L in their last 29 games (0.72 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Cambridge United away?
Cambridge United's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.86 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when Cambridge United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gillingham's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gillingham
1
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 2, Cambridge United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cambridge United 5-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Cambridge United?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 43%, Cambridge United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gillingham) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Gillingham have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gillingham's recent matches and 64% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gillingham's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Cambridge United 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.90 xG and Cambridge United 1.86 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.64 / defence 1.73 against Cambridge United attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 17% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 60%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 38%, Cambridge United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambridge United's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambridge United arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Gillingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.