Gillingham 1-3 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burton Albion at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as Gillingham welcome Burton Albion to Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's home record at Priestfield Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Burton Albion — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gillingham have won 0, Burton Albion 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gillingham trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 54% versus Burton Albion 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 33% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.76 xG and Burton Albion 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.543 / defence 1.375 | Burton Albion attack 0.583 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.286. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.543 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Gillingham games / 24 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 41%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Burton Albion 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 40% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Gillingham 0.76 / Burton Albion 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.543 / def 1.375 | Burton Albion attack 0.583 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Burton Albion xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Burton Albion kick off?
Gillingham vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Burton Albion?
Gillingham 1 - 3 Burton Albion.
Where is Gillingham vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Burton Albion part of?
Gillingham vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Gillingham and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Burton Albion in?
Gillingham (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
26%
3.86
33%
3.02
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.79
1.03
Burton Albion xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.03 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gillingham's recent record stands at 3W 9D 12L from 24 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 10L across 24 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Burton Albion by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 2W 3D 6L from 11 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 24 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 3W 9D 12L in their last 24 games (0.75 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Burton Albion away?
Gillingham's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.82 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gillingham and Burton Albion runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gillingham
1
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Gillingham 1-3 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 46%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gillingham) and 36% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Gillingham have failed to score in 46% of games; Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gillingham's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gillingham's recent games and 36% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Gillingham 1-3 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.76 xG and Burton Albion 1.03 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.54 / defence 1.38 against Burton Albion attack 0.58 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 26% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 41%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 33%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burton Albion arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.