Exeter City vs Wycombe – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.72) and Wycombe's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wycombe's attack (1.63x) against Exeter City's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
22%
4.59
25%
3.99
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.52
1.60
Wycombe xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
22.70
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.60 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.