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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Exeter City 0-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.07 xG and Stockport County 1.26 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.99 / defence 1.31 against Stockport County attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights